The level headed Andrew Stephen

who is one of the best things about the New Statesman, is not at all euphoric about the Democrat victory, saying they will now form a circular firing squad. But what he says about the Republicans is rather more worrying:

Rumours persist here (and I have heard them repeated at a very senior level in the UK, too) that Bush has actually resumed drinking; I throw this into the mix not to sensationalise, but because I have now heard the rumour repeated at a sufficiently high level that I believe we must face the possibility that it might be true.
Bush was huddled inside the White House eating beef and ice cream on election night with Rove, my friend Josh Bolten, and four other trusted aides who will stick with him to the end. He was not drinking on this occasion, I’m assured – but, more than ever, my depiction of an unstable man living out his final days in office inside his bunker seem no longer to be fanciful. Hemmed in by Democratic foes wherever he looks, determined to be remembered in history as an unwaveringly strong leader, and increasingly detached from reality: now that suddenly becomes a very frightening vision indeed.

Posted in War | 1 Comment

Victory celebrations

The bloke who came to fix our washing machine yesterday turned out to be an ex-squaddie, who had left the army after being blown out of a troop carrier by an IED which killed one of his mates. He was not in the least bit anti-war, though he said Iraq was hell: “You have to watch your back all the time, from everyone, even the Iraqi police”. But he despised the Americans. “Our motto is ‘one shot; one kill.’ Theirs is ‘One magazine: maybe we’ll get someone’.”

He would have rejoiced in the election results, though, and I like to believe that a similar sentiment lay behind this story of another squaddie, a rocket, and his arsehole.

It is also possible, though less likely, that something similar was what George W Bush meant when he talked about the “thoughtful conversations” he had had with Rumsfeld before sacking him. I mean, which one of them could be trusted to put the rocket in the right way round?

Posted in War | Comments Off on Victory celebrations

Election night music

A glorious song about Ted Haggard here. Let’s see if I can get it onto thinking Anglicans. The chorus goes something like “Meth and man ass, praise the Lord!” Catchy tune, too.

Posted in War | 2 Comments

Never a rat, not scuttling; still wrong

John Lloyd is a really admirable journalist. I suppose I think that he is the most substantial journalistic supporter of the war: he’s not a drunk; he doesn’t rant or showboat; he’s not unduly impressed by power, but he does respect its difficulty. He is also a damn good editor. So his retreat from Iraq is not a rat-like scuttle, but some altogether larger and more formidable rodent — a beaver, perhaps — moving backwards and snapping at his persecutors as he does. Perhaps the clue to why he got it wrong is found in his fondness for trade unionists: he was a cold war man, and a Moscow correspondent, and he may have just fitted Iraq into that pattern, as Condi Rice did. In any case, here he is on a Downing Street ceremony to honour a murdered Iraqi trades unionist.

First, Saleh’s life and death shows what the stakes are, and remain, in Iraq. Those who hated him, and who hate trade unions, do so because their vision of society is of one ruled by either a party or a faith or both that prohibit, on pain of death, any challenge to a totalitarian reality.
Blair is indeed beleaguered. It is true that there are real advances in Iraq in civil freedoms, but the chaos, mainly in the capital, offsets these and makes government and development hard. Also, the prime minister of Iraq, Nouri al-Maliki, is under pressure to deliver more, faster, in the way of security, by UK and US leaders anxious to set a date for withdrawing their forces.
But the little scene in Downing Street was larger evidence of a prime minister who knew, as few leaders now do, what the stakes are; the more so since he is tied to one. Through the doughty Labour MP Ann Clwyd, his representative on human rights in Iraq, he remains in touch with a range of groups, as well as unions. He is seeing the gamble he took in seeking the destruction of the regime take a murderous direction. He will be pilloried for it until the day he leaves office, and beyond. Yet he must hope – and so should we, if we value the ideas to which we subscribe – that it will be recognised how much honour he did his country by ensuring the end of a monster.

Only a pedant, of the sort that John Lloyd was, and on other subjects still is, would point out that it was hardly Blair who “ensured the end of Saddam”. We know, because Rumsfeld said so, that the invasion would have gone ahead without us. Nor is it easy to identify “real advances in civil freedoms”: the freedom to walk down the street without fearing death or torture seems to me more important than a democratic constitution which is totally ignored.

But the central mistake is surely the comparison of Iraqi trades unions with Solidarity. Quite apart from anything else, a nationalist and religious trades union movement, such as Solidarity was, would not be pro-American or pro-Lloyd, if it were to emerge in Iraq. And, to do him proper credit, Lloyd does mention that Hadi Saleh, the trade unionist he honours, had been and remained an opponent of the war.

Posted in War | Comments Off on Never a rat, not scuttling; still wrong

Tony Judt on anti-anti-Semitism

to London today, to interview Tony Judt. Very interesting man: one thing, which may not make the interview, that he said when we were discussing American attitudes to Europe and Israel. Since courses in European history became optional twenty five years ago or so, no one under 35 in the USA knows anything about European history. But there is one exception: in many, perhaps most states, there is a compulsory high school course in holocaust studies, or world War Two, or Nazism — they are all more or less the same, and they all teach the Second World War as if it were primarily about the extermination of European Jewry. Now that may have been the most important thing about it morally, or in retrospect. but it wasn’t the most important thing at the time for anyone outside two groups, the Nazis and the Jews. It wasn’t the most politically important thing about the war. But “most young Americans’ understanding of Europe is shaped by this sense that the dominant characteristic of recent European history is the propensity to kill jews … I worry that in the states we live in a situation, without it even being party-political propaganda, where people grow up with the idea that Europe is permanently disposed to kill Jews, and that only Israel and of course with it America, stands as an impediment against this. And under those circumstances, of course, all criticism of Israel does indeed look like handing gifts to anti-Semites.”

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Measuring religion

[Very odd essay] in the Chronicle of Higher Education arguing that we should not measure the effects of religious practice scientifically even though we could. Why this is oddest is that it assumes that no such measurements of religious practice are ever made by the religious themselves. OK, they are not always scientific. But all religious tout their own worldly benefits, and some of these are due, not just to the co-operative qualities of shared religious endeavour, but to the particular practices of competing religions.[1]

%(sane) Religion and science are independent approaches to knowledge, and neither can be reduced to the other. Religion and science are fundamentally different, with the former relying on faith as a source of wisdom and the latter demanding evidence. Religious truths generally are considered to be enduring and not subject to change,[2] % writes Sloan, and this seems to me importantly untrue. It’s another example of the Pharyngular error that what distinguishes “religion” from “science” is that “religion” is untrue and its belief unwarranted by the evidence. No: what distinguishes science from everything else, including religion, politics, love, history and everything else, is that it deals with numerically measurable, repeatable phenomena. But science as a social activity obviously has all sorts of myths taken on authority; and self-conscious modern religious organisations spend a lot of time researching the effectiveness of their own efforts. The Alpha course is shaped by a great deal of self-conscious trial and error, and so are its competitors.

But Sloan goes on to use an argument I found at first quite mystifying and later (unintentionally) extremely illuminating because of what he takes for granted. Here goes:

Without a doubt, we could conduct a study contrasting the health effects of Christianity, Judaism, and Islam, for example. It could be done in precisely the same way that researchers have examined the effects of higher versus lower frequency of attendance at religious services, or greater or lower frequency of private prayer or reading the Bible or listening to religious radio programming. From the scientific perspective, there is no fundamental difference between using religious denomination or religious attendance as the predictor variable.
Although science allows us to conduct such a study, ethics and religion ought to tell us how ridiculous such a comparison would be. In today’s world (and in the past as well), we have ample evidence of religious strife. This should not diminish the value that religion has for many people, but no one can dismiss the fact that religious factionalism has been responsible for conflict at the societal and familial level for thousands of years. Even if we could, hypothetically, demonstrate that Protestant prayer is better for one’s health than Catholic prayer, why would we ever want to do so?

Well, for start, to get rid of all the Catholics. More generally, if it could be shown that some kinds of religious practice are better for you than others (and, I repeat, it is not atheist scientists who will decide whether that research is carried out) then people would naturally switch to the ones that did work. Even on the level where “better for you” means only “more comforting” we can see this happening in the spread of prayers for the dead among Anglicans after the First World War. Or, I suppose, in the adoption of women clergy by middle class protestant denominations.

It seems to me obvious that if there were a single set of religious technologies which could be shown to work better than all others, in terms of bringing measurable benefits to their practitioners, then we should urge everyone to take them up—and even if we (wise and benevolent guardians of society) omitted to do so, they would spread through the market. How could this not be a good thing?

Up to now, his argument looks really confused. But there is one assumption that makes sense of it: he assumes that half the purpose of religious belief is that there should be unbelievers. If there were unequivocal proof of the truth (benefits) of any particular belief system, then everyone would adopt it and in that case it would be necessary to invent new heresies, and new untestabilities.

Now, the idea that there is an intellectual, or moral, merit to the unprovability of religious belief makes no sense at all. It seems to me a completely blatant rationalisation. But a rationalisation for what? And the answer to that is that it is a rationalisation for the political advantages of undecidability. Arguing about the kinds of things that cannot by their nature be decided or susceptible to proof is much the best way to ensure that what is really being measured is something else: political power, debating skill, or determination. All these are important cues for establishing status, as well as important skills or attributes in their own right for the contestants.

This view has the merit of explaining why religion (as opposed to superstition, which may remain more or less constant) is spreading in the modern world.

fn1. [Note that this is another example of the way in which conversion, and the possibility of conversion, completely alter “religion” from its primal state as a kind of shamanism]

fn2. acb adds “except by anyone who has thought about them and studied how their propositional content does in fact change a great deal.”

Posted in God, Journalism | 3 Comments

Arrogant, lui?

“Still, I excuse those who pray for me,” writes Dan Dennett, from his hospital bed in the course of a rather moving and sensible essay about his recent brush with death.

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The Sunday Helmintholog

Is the Sunday Papers, or something like that: an assortment of short and mostly silly thoughts.

  1. Blondes have more fun, according to a couple of ["American researchers, who hypothesise":http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=639045] that (1) Shy people get more drunk than less shy people, at least in social situations (2) Shyness correlates with blue eyes (3) drinking habits are to some degree socially learned, so that if you are the only moderately pissed person in a room full of howling drunks, you are likely to drink more yourself, in self-defence; and (4) blue-eyedness is more common in Northern Europe than in the south. QED. This apparently explains the state of the pavements in English provincial towns on a Saturday night.
    If you would rather have this mathematically, they provide equations:

Two points to notice about this research. It was published in a reputable journal – at least it is the product of The Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University; and the term they use for binge drinking is an acronym — EDSS . I feel a short article coming on.
# Mary Gauthier at the Roundhouse was a lot of fun in a very small room. Not the best gig I have ever been to, but a better performance than the last couple of albums because without so much weighty significance. Much quicker and lighter arrangements. She said, at one point, that she had thought, when she wrote it, that "I drink(Tragically flash-heavy site)":http://www.marygauthier.com/ was the saddest song she had ever done, but everywhere she plays it people laugh. I certainly did. I mean, it is a good song, and very sad; but sad in the way that ends up laugh-out-loud funny. I think that a failure to understand this – a certain portentious significance – is the most interesting artistic failure of the "Americana" movement. She also had a very good second guitarist named Thomm Jutz playing with her.
# Typekey is hard to get working. It certainly isn’t letting people post directly, which is what I want, Presumably this is because I am running an installation of MT which is in bits nearly five years old, and has got very customised templates, so only a complete reinstall and piece by piece rebuild of the comment templates would have the right effect. I can think of better uses for two hours.
# A thought for Christmas, via The original sin between Adam and Eve was that they consumned each others own sexual fluids. The tree of the knowledge of good and bad was Adam’s penis. If you use a digital camera to take a picture of your erect penis on the side1 you see when looking down at it and put the picture into your computer you can fit an equilateral triangle around the head of it. This is the Christmas tree. I think this is the pure, distilled, essence of Usenet. (original, with much much more is ["here":http://groups.google.co.uk/group/alt.freemasonry/browse_frm/thread/f3a61429a4988f9a/7ab910e8b4da2a7b?tvc=1&q=yeshuwa_is_king%40yahoo.com&hl=en#7ab910e8b4da2a7b])
# from the same sort of source, Charlie Stross has "some fantastic reader reviews":http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2006/10/the_book_is_not_that_interesti.html from Amazon. Of what could it be said and by whom that "I love classic novels. Some of my favorites: Gone with the wind/The catcher in the rye/Huck Finn/The Iliad..I adore Shakespeare… this book was B-O-R-I-N-G!!!2

2 Anna Karenina, by "A reader", who should, perhaps, have chosen a more credible pseudonym.

1 How dare you call this theory faith-based?

Posted in Blather | Comments Off on The Sunday Helmintholog

Comment is stuffed

I can’t get typekey working, so I will just go off to London this evening to see Mary Gauthier at the Roundhouse. Highly recommended.

Posted in Housekeeping | Comments Off on Comment is stuffed

Do me a favour, please

Could people with typekey identities try to post comments? They should go through at once. I can’t work out if I have got this working properly.

Posted in Housekeeping | 3 Comments