on being phished update

I wrote a column last week for the Guardian tech section about the discovery that someone I do business with has had their servers cracked. I know this because I have started getting spam to the email address I use only for commercial correspondence. But I don’t know who it was, because I have bought from more than seventy different merchants using that address.

The first waves of spam were perfectly standard, but this morning I got the run of a second botnet — twenty seven messages in one gulp — and many of them were personalised with my name as well as my email address: “Dear Andrew”, etc.

Fortunately, none of this will be any use for real phishing purposes, since anywhere that I have an account has an individual and unique email name. Still, it is a chilling demonstration of the way in which our dertails are spread across the net, and we must trust people to look after them when we have no reason whatever to do so. From now on, anyone I deal with will get an individual email address.

For the moment, everything to that address will simply get forwarded to gmail, which has spam controls so much better that I noticed it as a shock when three messages got through them earlier this week. Presumably that represents a new run of a freshly tuned botnet.

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More Weizenbaum

A lovely passage, from the end of Chapter Seven:

A theory is of course itself a conceptual framework. And so it determines what is and what is not to count as fact. The theories—or, perhaps better said, the root metaphors—that have hypnotised the artificial intelligentsia and large segments of the general public as well, have long determined that life is what is computable and only that. As Professor John McCarthy, head of Stanford University’s Artificial Intelligence Laboratory said, “The only reason we have not yet succeeded in formalising every aspect of the real world is that we have been lacking a sufficiently powerful logical calculus. I am currently working on that problem.”

Sometimes when my children were still little, my wife and I would stand over them as they lay sleeping in their beds. We spoke to each other in silence, rehearsing a scene as old as mankind itself. It is as Ionesco told his journal: “Not everything is unsayable in words, only the living truth.”
Posted in Science without worms | 1 Comment

Rowan on Auden: WTF?

Last week Rowan Williams contributed a preface to the Guardian’s little pamphlet of Auden poetry. Did anyone at any stage, read what he wrote? In particular, did anyone actually read the following two sentences?

The technical skill is always exceptional. You’d call it dazzling if it were not so all-pervading (if not unobtrusive, at least) apparently intrinsic to the poetic argument and energy.

I left in the first one because without it the second makes no sense at all; with it, you can at least see that he is talking about Auden’s technical accomplishment. But what is he saying about it? In particular, what might it possibly mean to say of anything that it is all-pervading (if not unobtrusive, at least)?

What makes me so angry about this is that Rowan is meant to be a poet himself. He is meant to care about proper words in proper order, even when phoning in something for a newspaper. A phrase like that would bring any real poet out in hay fever.

It is also fairly shaming that no one at the Guardian rang up and demanded that he rewrite it.

Posted in God, Literature | 9 Comments

fifteen minutes

till my radio programme goes out.

Posted in Journalism | 2 Comments

The nerd is the enemy of civilisation

Inspired by Scott Rosenberg, I have started to read Joseph Weizenbaum’s book Computer Power and Human Reason. Weizenbaum, who died last month, was the inventor of ELIZA, the first chatbot; and he was so horrified by the enthusiastic reactions to his program that he set out to write one of the first great anti AI manifestos. As a programmer of real brilliance himself, who was none the less a product of the philosophically sophisticated central European milieu between the wars, he was horrified by the emergent hacker culture at MIT, where he worked, and there is a long, and eminently quotable passage describing the friends of Richard Stallman:

Wherever computer centers have become established, that is to say, in countless places in the United States, as well as in virtually all other industrial regions of the world, bright young men of di­sheveled appearance, often with sunken glowing eyes, can be seen sitting at computer consoles, their arms tensed and waiting to fire their fingers, already poised to strike, at the buttons and keys on which their attention seems to be as riveted as a gambler’s on the rolling dice. When not so transfixed, they often sit at tables strewn with computer printouts over which they pore like possessed students of a cabalistic text. They work until they nearly drop, twenty, thirty hours at a time. Their food, if they arrange it, is brought to them: coffee, Cokes, sandwiches. If possible, they sleep on cots near the computer. But only for a few hours–then back to the console or the printouts. Their rumpled clothes, their unwashed and unshaven faces, and their uncombed hair all testify that they are oblivious to their bodies and to the world in which they move. They exist, at least when so engaged, only through and for the computers. These are computer bums, compulsive programmers. They are an interna­tional phenomenon.

How may the compulsive programmer be distinguished from a merely dedicated, hard-working professional programmer? First, by the fact that the ordinary professional programmer addresses himself to the problem to be solved, whereas the compulsive programmer sees the problem mainly as an opportunity to interact with the computer.
….
The compulsive programmer is usually a superb technician, moreover, one who knows every detail of the computer he works on, its peripheral equipment, the computer’s operating system, etc. He is often tolerated around computer centers because of his knowledge of the system and because he can write small subsystem programs quickly, that is, in one or two sessions of, say, twenty hours each. After a time, the center may in fact be using a number of his programs. But because the compulsive programmer can hardly be motivated to do anything but program, he will almost never document his programs once he stops working on them. A center may there­fore come to depend on him to teach the use of, and to maintain, the programs that he wrote and whose structure only he, if anyone, understands. His position is rather like that of a bank employee who doesn’t do much for the bank, but who is kept on because only he knows the combination to the safe. His main interest is, in any case, not in small programs, but in very large, very ambitious systems of programs. Usually the systems he undertakes to build, and on which he works feverishly for perhaps a month or two or three, have very grandiose but extremely imprecisely stated goals. Some examples of these ambitions are: new computer languages to facilitate man-machine communication; a general system that can be taught to play any board game; a system to make it easier for computer experts to write super-systems (this last is a favorite). It is characteristic of many such projects that the programmer can long continue in the conviction that they demand knowledge about nothing but computers, programming, etc. And that knowledge he, of course, commands in abundance. Indeed, the point at which such work is often abandoned is precisely when it ceases to be purely incestuous, i.e., when programming would have to be interrupted in order that knowledge from outside the computer world may be acquired.

Weizenbaum, writing in 1975, then goes on to explain that these people do not talk of themselves as “programmers”, but as “hackers”1 and goes on to compare them with the compulsive gamblers depicted by Dostoevski. Such a gambler, he says, is of course consumed with magical thinking; and he then goes on to draw an comparison between the magical thinking of the hacker or compulsive programmer and what we now call scientism (which is the real target of his book):

… the reason we are so interested in the compulsive programmer is that we see no discontinuity between his pathological motives and behavior and those of the modern scientist and technologist generally. The compulsive programmer is merely the proverbial mad scientist who has been given a theater, the computer, in which he can, and does, play out his fantasies.

Let us reconsider Bergler’s three observations about gamblers. First, the gambler is subjectively certain that he will win. So is the compulsive programmer–only he, having created his own world on a universal machine, has some foundation in reality for his certainty. Scientists, with some exceptions, share the same faith: what science has not done, it has not yet done; the questions science has not answered, it has not _yet _ answered. Second, the gambler has an unbounded faith in his own cleverness. Well?! Third, the gambler knows that life itself is nothing but a gamble. Similarly, the compulsive programmer is convinced that life is nothing but a program running on an enormous computer, and that therefore every aspect of life can ultimately be explained in programming terms. Many scientists (again there are notable exceptions) also believe that every aspect of life and nature can finally be explained in exclusively scientific terms. Indeed, as Polanyi correctly points out, the stability of scientific beliefs is defended by the same devices that protect magical belief systems:

“Any contradiction between a particular scientific notion and the facts of experience will be explained by other scientific notions; there is a ready reserve of possible scientific hypotheses available to explain any conceivable event. . . . within science itself, the stability of theories against experience is maintained by epicyclical reserves which suppress alternative conceptions in the germ.”

Hence we can make out a continuum. At one of its extremes stand scientists and technologists who much resemble the compulsive programmer. At the other extreme are those scientists, humanists, philosophers, artists, and religionists who seek understanding as whole persons and from all possible perspectives. The affairs of the world appear to be in the hands of technicians whose psychic constitutions approximate those of the former to a dangerous degree. Meanwhile the voices that speak the wisdom of the latter seem to be growing ever fainter.

My copy — bought as a paperback from abebooks — is already disintegrating as I scan it. This is a pleasant meta-demonstration of his argument, since merely understanding the book by reading it would cause less physical damage. But then I scan it so that you can all make comments. I will have to buy another one just to have to read.

Two chapters of the book are a dense explanation from first principles of what a Turing machine is and does. This demands very careful rereading, if, like me, one only half-absorbed Goedel, Escher, Bach.

So far it looks as if Weizenbaum’s early argument that science cannot exist without prior, independent value judgements, and cannot hope ever to replace them, is really the core of the book, and I will come back to it when I have thoroughly digested it.

1 I really ought to submit this passage to the OED

Posted in God, Net stories, nördig, Science without worms | 6 Comments

Articles of Note

  • Neal Ascherson was the only man I know who saw from the very beginning that the Iraq war would be the end of the American empire. I don’t think anyone else completely discounted the possibility that the US might in some sense win it. His lucid and pessimistic reflections, five years on, in the __New Statesman,_ are therefore unusually worth reading, especially the end:

And you happy, angry millions who flooded the streets five years ago – what do you feel now? “Not in My Name”? But a few days later it was done in your name, in spite of your passion. Blair pretended to take no notice; the next election did not throw him out; the killing has not stopped.
Does that mean that it’s time to shrug and move on, that all passion against unjust war is futile? I don’t think so. Demonstrations frighten governments more than they admit. Those who take part in them are changed, remembering a sense of strength that can last a lifetime. Meanwhile, the world has not moved on, but continues to burn; the madmen on all sides do not shrug but are laying new plots. Marchers with a passion for justice will be needed again, perhaps sooner than we think.

  • The place to go for bulletins on the credit crunch is the FT. Nowhere else is the prospect of a complete collapse of the whole house of cards taken as seriously and the stuff you find there is sometimes brutally critical of Wall Street mores. Here, for example, is Willem Buiter, a former chief economist of the EBRD, on the Bear Stearns bailout:

The shareholders of Bear Stearns are eating their cake and having it. Shares may have dropped 43 percent in value, but what is left still beats nothing. And nothing seems the only possible fair value for what Bear Stearns would be worth without Fed assistance. Why was Bear Stearns not taken into public ownership, preferably at a zero price?
It’s worth reading the whole lot through.
In related news, it turns out that about 10% of American homeowners have loans taken out on their homes for more than they are worth; that is the state of affairs in February, when most reputable estimates suggest that the housing market has another ten or twenty per cent to fall.

The US already has what must be the world’s most generous fiscal dispensation for mortgage borrowers — uncapped tax relief for owner-occupiers, plus colossal “government sponsored entities” to guarantee loans, implicitly subsidise mortgage rates and promote securitisation. This fiscal regime created an environment in which you felt a fool unless you borrowed to the hilt — not just to buy your house but to keep your equity in it to a minimum, so as to liberate cash for other purposes. This is the very root of the problem. Yet favoured responses to the subprime crisis on Capitol Hill include extensions of tax relief to poorer households (at present, it goes only to taxpayers who itemise their deductions), further vast expansions of the remit of, and resources potentially available to, the GSEs, and assorted new outright subsidies.

  • John Cornwell has a huge article in the Sunday Times magazine today, which contains a story which trips every xenophobic circuit in the modern English psyche: some of the Polish immigrants with whom we are presently overrun are converting to Islam when they get here:

I’m talking with a chief imam in a Midlands city, who wants himself and his mosque to be off the record. He takes me up into an office on the second floor, past a room labelled Fatwahs — which merely means sharia judgments. He talks about Islam being a proselytising religion, unlike Judaism, Hinduism and Sikhism. For this reason, he says, Islam is set to expand rapidly in Britain. Then he drops a bombshell. “In the past two years, 16 Polish women have converted to Islam in my mosque.”
When I ask to meet these women, he says it is impossible. So I take another route. The imams are mostly ruled by the mosque councils which pay their salaries; the real power in the community resides with the local ward councillors, who hold court in the front rooms of their homes. This is how I met a remarkable Muslim woman community worker, who also wished to remain anonymous.
“There are second-generation Muslim men in many communities who have been obliged to marry village women or cousins back home. These men may be prosperous and westernised, and want a different kind of relationship, with a younger woman perhaps. A typical Polish convert might have been a victim of domestic violence with her boyfriend. She might have worked as a cleaner for a Muslim man who finds her attractive and takes her as a mistress or even proposes marriage as a second wife. He then sets her up in a flat and perhaps pays for her to go to college. They begin to find Islam attractive.”

Don’t anyone tell the Catholic Herald.

Posted in Journalism | 3 Comments

A better cold cure

The one thing about all cold cures is that they don’t work. Apart from stuff which generally stimulates your immune system, there is nothing to do but wait it out as comfortably as possible. With this in mind, I spent five and a half hours in a darkened office yesterday, along with the FWB, sipping tea, or hot lemon and honey, while watching back to back episodes of The Wire, season one. It’s the first time in my life I have approached a television series as if it were a book — where five hours’ reading would be perfectly normal. It was wonderful. Elsewhere in the house, on Sunday evenings, the FWB has been watching a Victorian costume drama with her mother. This naturally led to thoughts of crossover. Lark Rise to Baltimore, anyone?

Come to think of it, such a series might form the basis of a real cold cure since it would expel all the snot from your head when your brain exploded.

Posted in Blather | 1 Comment

Why no posting

I’m sorry to have neglected this blog; there is a backlog of interesting stuff to post later, but for the moment I have been working too hard on a radio programme. That’s all over bar the recording tomorrow and, though I say it myself, it’s bloody good. Analysis, broadcast next Thursday evening, repeated on Easter Day. It contains the single most moving interview segment I have ever recorded, in which a mother considers the loss of her child without any sentimentality at all.

It might, who knows, make some people think.

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The FT is very gloomy

Belated news, but hardly out of date: the FT on Monday had a remarkably pessimistic commentary on its op-ed page by Wolfgang Münchau, saying, in essence, that the credit crunch will be even nastier in the UK than in the US, because our economy is still more run on smoke and mirrors than theirs.

In the next few years, I expect the UK economic miracle to be exposed for what it was: an overlong joyride on the back of an overlong asset price bubble. The UK economy is about to undergo a downturn at least as large as that of the US – maybe even worse, because of an even more inflated housing market and because the financial sector constitutes a larger share of gross domestic product.
According to my calculations, UK residential property prices are about 30 per cent above their trend in real terms. If the trend has not changed in the past few years, that would suggest that inflation-adjusted prices could fall by up to 40 per cent from peak to trough.

A house price crash would take time to unfold. Assuming a constant inflation rate of 2 per cent a year, nominal house prices would have to go down by about an unprecedented 25 per cent if the decline stretched over six years. Remember: the first stages of a housing downturn consist of denial followed by anger. A fall in actual prices is a relatively late-stage phenomenon of a housing crash.
The UK financial sector is in no less trouble. The credit crisis has a lot further to run, as it moves from one subsector to another. As I have argued previously, credit default swaps pose very serious risks to financial stability and the City of London has been the centre of the European CDS market.

This, remember, is the view of an associate editor of the Financial Times, hardly a ranting anti-capitalist rag. In fact Münchau goes on to say that one of the worst consequences will be that working in the financial sector will no longer be cool — so the people who see their house prices slide by forty per cent can console themselves that there is some banker even worse off than they are, since his job is no longer fashionable.

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Silly Scanner fun

The wonderful Librarything is selling off cuecat scanners, to read the ISBN numbers off barcodes, very cheaply, and mine arrived this morning. It took about ten minutes to learn that the secret is to swipe quite fast, and after that, the widget just works: take a book, run the scanner over its barcode, and you have its title, author, publisher and so on entered all neatly in the library, ready to tag. I could do a huge pile in an hour with a laptop. There are not many of my books that don’t have barcodes these days, and certainly very few that I buy. I wonder if I can use it for tagging entries about books here. hmmmm.

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